Does History rhyme or repeat ?

7 Dec

Every time history rhymes or repeats itself, the price goes up

Come gather ’round people
Wherever you roam
And admit that the waters
Around you have grown
And accept it that soon
You’ll be drenched to the bone
If your time to you
Is worth savin’
Then you better start swimmin’
Or you’ll sink like a stone
For the times they are a-changin’.

Come writers and critics
Who prophesize with your pen
And keep your eyes wide
The chance won’t come again
And don’t speak too soon
For the wheel’s still in spin
And there’s no tellin’ who
That it’s namin’
For the loser now
Will be later to win
For the times they are a-changin’.

Come senators, congressmen
Please heed the call
Don’t stand in the doorway
Don’t block up the hall
For he that gets hurt
Will be he who has stalled
There’s a battle outside
And it is ragin’
It’ll soon shake your windows
And rattle your walls
For the times they are a-changin’.

Come mothers and fathers
Throughout the land
And don’t criticize
What you can’t understand
Your sons and your daughters
Are beyond your command
Your old road is
Rapidly agin’
Please get out of the new one
If you can’t lend your hand
For the times they are a-changin’.

The line it is drawn
The curse it is cast
The slow one now
Will later be fast
As the present now
Will later be past
The order is
Rapidly fadin’
And the first one now
Will later be last
For the times they are a-changin

Noise

25 Nov

This week has had an interesting news cycle. From the recent nuclear announcement with Iran, Obama’s affordable care act issues, the long delayed attempt to remove 1500 radioactive rods from the Fukuhshima plant to the Chinese proclamation about air rights over the disputed Senkaku/Daiyou islands.

What I find most interesting about international events is how low the barrier to entry is when it comes to having an opinion about what is going on around the world. Anyone with a pulse make sweeping generalized statements while having little direct knowledge about the region in question. For the record I am not saying I am the expert but what many posit as fact should be more accurately defined as opinion. I would further hazard to say that many of these opinions are not only flawed but dangerously broken.

My father often told me to question another persons information source. Not in an aggressive manner but rather to determine where the so called facts were coming from. Once you get a grasp on someone’s knowledge base you can better interpret their conclusions. James Rickards is clearly a brilliant writer with extensive knowledge of gold and finances but his position towards the middle east is cloudy at best. Its not a snap decision on my part just simply connecting the dots from watching and reading what he says. So if he talks about finance or gold I am all ears, but when he discusses regional politics in the middle east especially Israel I choose to ignore much of what he says.

This goes to the heart of what I wanted to discuss. If you need an accountant or lawyer or even a doctor, you seek someone who is competent to take care of your needs. They provide a service and we hopefully benefit from their experience. Yet politics has no such barrier to entry. Everyone has an opinion about politics based on facts that are flawed in the best of times. Yet governmental policy is such a vitriolic issue that it often causes bitter feelings between the participants. Pointing out weak points seems to exacerbate the issue rather than clarify it. This is because people are wed to their beliefs and it often has little to do with the overriding mutually agreed upon facts of common ground.

Its a sad state of affairs.

So rather than try to poke holes in other people’s beliefs perhaps its best to ask questions about why they have come to those conclusions. In this way we can better understand each other.

Lets start with Iran shall we ?

So firstly we should agree that US foreign policy when it comes to Iran is sordid at best. The US government supported a counter-revolution and installed the Shah who had a pro US position. It was an extension of Kennan’s containment policy and in hindsight was quite effective in limiting soviet influence in the region. If someone doesn’t know these facts than their opinion on Iran has no value because they don’t understand the situation. Now that we agree that Iran is of vital interest to the US and that US foreign policy is geared towards keeping Iran within US influence it was only a question of time before events moved them towards detente.

You may not like this or support its undertaking but it has very little to do with the facts of the situation. The region is now in flux, but it has always been this way and it will continue to remain in this condition going forward. It is not a political zero sum game. The choice is NOT one of Israel or Iran, nor is it Saudi Arabia or Iran. It can be both. Yet many are making statements as if both is not a viable alternative. This is pure folly and is foolish to do so unless you conclude that the solution to the situation is to attack Iran because there is no other choice.

Since I don’t believe that anything positive can come about from attacking Iran the alternative which include negotiations are preferable. Maybe history will prove me wrong but if I have to choose between an Israeli airstrike or detente I choose the later. Finally since Israel has not signed the non proliferation treaty they are not in a position to dictate to anyone about the details of the treaty. Perhaps they should re-evaluate their position and sign the treaty ?

Healthcare is either a right or a privilege. How you answer that question will quite likely determine ones position on the issue. What I find amusing is the argument that somehow people of limited means shouldn’t have healthcare. Either you have it or you don’t. Its something everyone wants as well. The young and healthy perhaps don’t want it but they certainly need it if and when someone happens to them.

Currently the US system is broken. Americans pay more than other countries for health yet don’t have coverage for everyone. We can choose either to fix it or not.

Where was the outrage about healthcare from the right before Obama tried to pass the Affordable care act ? Where was the debate from the Tea Party when Bush passed the Medicare expansion program ? These are not fixing the problem they are only treating the symptoms. Why do liberals accept a less than adequate system of coverage ?

It certainly is a vexing issue, yet those who want the ACA to fail or want to go back to the good old days simply do not understand the problem. Follow the logic; Poor and working class people get sick, they don’t have healthcare so they delay seeing a doctor, eventually the problem gets worse so they go to the emergency room to get treatment, the bill is either picked up by the state or taxpayers anyway or is eaten by the hospital which in turn increases costs. You and I are paying for it anyway. Got it ?

You and I cannot escape from paying for other peoples care. Its really as simple as that. If you prefer a system where you don’t pay for other people I suggest you spend some time in urban India where poverty is so pervasive that people die on the streets because that is what we are going to get in the US with a no government coverage policy. Its the same flawed subjective thinking that concludes that all government is bad, yet we enjoy police, fire, road, passport and a variety of social services courtesy of our collective tax dollars.

Can government be smaller ? You bet it can, but lets cut fat not bone or muscle.

Its a broken system. There are no good old days, and hampering people’s access to healthcare makes the problem more expensive. MORE expensive not less. Yet we hear very little about solutions from either side. A pathetic situation self inflicted situation with both parties to blame which is bound to get worse.

Fukushima is a situation I have written about before that I prefer to not cover right now but there are problems with the cleanup that I will address at another time.

Last but certainly not least is the East China Sea. Warning this is more of a rant but clearly the current structure is not capable of handling the demands being put upon it. Chinese, Korean and Japanese politicians are addressing their collective domestic audiences without much regard to the region nor the consequences from conducting poor policies.

Some would suggest that this issue is about energy, yet if it were really about energy why aren’t the Japanese or any other power trying to tap into the area ? Perhaps there isn’t as much “energy” as is being claimed because if there were it would be tapped and flowing into the market by now. If it is Japanese as Mr Abe claims then go ahead and unilaterally begin mining it. Yet I see no action or discussion about doing so.

In my opinion the issue is not about energy it is about influence in the region. Energy is a strawman that everyone buys into because it appears to explain the problem. This is coming from someone who has been closely watching the region situation for a decade. You may disagree with my position but how much time have you spent on studying it and what is your information source. Pulling it out of your butt is not a viable argument either.

China has taken the next step in the escalation of words by proclaiming that the air space above the disputed area are now subject to Beijing’s rules. They have imposed a domestically legal aircraft registration system that will classify all aircraft as either legitimate or “registered” or illegal or “not registered”. The Japanese have objected yet they already have such a system in existence and use it to label Chinese entry as incursions.

Which side is right ? I can’ t say but looking at the region I would conclude that Japan might be better served by trying to work with the Chinese rather than against them on this issue. Its the same broken zero sum game mindset that belongs to a forgotten age or flawed mindset that views uninhabited islands as owned by far of regional powers. Where is the harm is collectively developing the area, registering both air recognition systems and working towards common goals ?

Its absent, but if I were going to put chips on the table I would most likely go with China. They are a rising power, soon to be the biggest market in the world and it would suit Japan’s future generations to seek common ground with such an empire rather than to squabble over crumbs. Yes that’s right, I just qualified the islands as crumbs. Compared to the domestic auto industry in China the energy from the area is a relatively small market. Yet the Japanese opt out of being a major part of that market by adhering to a broken foreign policy that gains very little at the expense of longer term benefits.

Sending in marines or threatening to do so does not improve the situation it simple pushes both sides towards escalation. If that is the goal then both parties are doing a fabulous job of it.

Lies, lies and yet more lies

10 Nov

It seems that the truth is too much to ask for.

For years Japanese companies have been changing labels on their ‘PREMIUM’ menu items. While the recent news is about food ingredients in high end shops this writer is convinced that the lying pervades the entire retail sector. For example shoes labeled “made in Japan” are actually mostly made overseas but have their final assembly in Japan. Many years ago those shoes would in fact have been made in Japan from imported rubber and leather, but that is no longer the case. Yet the general public believes these shoes are Japanese. Not a big deal I suppose but it reflects just how deep the falsehoods have become.

In this most recent case PREMIUM means more expensive. As anyone who has ever shopped in Japan can tell you that the prices here are sometimes outrageous. $50 melons not withstanding the Japanese consumer is routinely ripped off, lied to and politely asked to shop again at brand name stores.

Real Japanese beef in a country that imports about 60% of its caloric intake sounds like a lie one would tell to a child yet the average Suzuki shopper believes it. Rice crackers are made of imported rice mostly from Vietnam and Thailand, yet most are shocked to hear this is so. Everyone is running around thinking their food is entirely made of top quality Japanese stuff when clearly it is not. Rice companies blend their rice with Chinese and American stuff, then turn around and ask top prices for PREMIUM domestic brands. Shrimp, Beef, Rice its all so false that I don’t believe any of it. Yet some of this stuff must actually be the “real” stuff after all. Right ?

How long can a reputation last when it has been caught with its collective fist in the cookie jar ? We are seeing it with the national bottom up movement against nuclear power. Its now acceptable to buck the trend and go against the mainstream of society. Japan is a culture and society built upon very slow progressive change but I see a groundswell of increasingly more progressive change coming. Less than 2 weeks ago politician Taro Yamamoto broke with tradition and taboo by handing the Emperor a document about the ongoing troubles at the Fukushima reactor. My guess is that Emperor Akihito is mostly unaware of the struggles and realities of the situation and is listening to the palace insiders who assure him that everything is under control. Hopefully this public act violating taboo will serve as an example for others to step forward and tell the truth.

Recently the food label lies have come to light. One can only wonder what is next.

As Bob Dylan said “the times they are a changing”.

Is it always darkest before the dawn ?

7 Nov

I know I often come off as acerbic with a negative view of Japan. Its with good reason because of a series of errors; from Abenomics, to TEPCO. A broken foreign policy to a healthy dose of denial.

However I want to draw your attention to a very important step in the right direction by TEPCO. After over 2 1/2 YEARS they are finally ready to implement the removal of the fuel rods from Reactor #4. Currently there are over 1500 rods stored in the pool in building #4 that must be removed.

I hope you will join me in wishing the entire removal team the bestest of wishes. Its going to be a long and dangerous operation. It should have been started years ago, but at least they are moving forward with the mission now.

Good luck to everyone involved in the fuel rod removal program !

Under control

21 Sep

“Let me assure you that the situation (in Fukushima) is under control”. These were the words spoken by the Japanese prime minister as part of his Olympic presentation.

Let me ask you a question my dear reader, do you think Mr Abe knows if the plant is under control ? What are his qualifications for such a statement ? If your answer is yes he knows about nuclear power plant safety then perhaps you can explain to me how he understands this because the evidence is quite to the contrary.

In fact within days of Mr Abe’s Olympic speech word from a Tokyo Electric Power (TEPCO) spokesman was that the plant was indeed NOT under control. Don’t believe me look it up for yourself. There was of course a retraction later in the news cycle but the truth was out for all to hear. The Prime Minister of Japan is a liar.

For those who have read this somewhat irregular blog you already know how much value I put in TEPCO official statements due to the fact that they have been lying since day 1 of the ongoing catastrophe. However when someone admits on the record to the situation not being under control I tend to give it more moral weight since as far as I know the tragic comedy of errors going on in Fukushima is currently running out of control.

From failing seals to a lack of pressure gauges, leaking radioactive water, rusting bolts to approximately 1300 used fuel rods currently sitting on the 3rd floor of reactor building number 4 the entire story is one of epic black swan failure.
Wait it gets better. Tokyo Governor Inose who prior to the Olympic bid was criticizing the media for alarmist reporting on the situation in Northern Japan has now done an about face. He publicly contradicted Shinzo Abe on Fuji TV saying the situation was “not necessarily under control”.

So much for taboo you are asking right ?

Yet the story gets more interesting. Mr Abe after making his pledge to the IOC dutifully went to visit the stricken plant in an effort to get things under control. He received a special suit for his tour complete with a name plate personalized by TEPCO. Yet the Kanji characters used to write his name were misspelled. This isn’t a foreign language we are talking about but the acting Prime Minister of Japan’s name being spelled incorrectly. A spokesman apologized for the gaffe but this just indicates the level of competence we are dealing with around these parts.

I would prefer to say it is yet another confirming indicator that something is fishy.
I want to point out something that may have been overlooked by many who are paying attention to the terrible situation here in Japan. Despite everyone’s best efforts, and some lies and some obfuscations the situation is most certainly not under control. So what would cause Mr Abe to make such a statement ? Is he that desperate to make his mark that he was ready to stand up in front of the world and lie for history books ?

Further along that line of thought why would the IOC believe such a statement. Are they capable of assessing such a promise and if not why didn’t they seek out information on their own instead of simply acting on good faith ? Certainly they deserve perhaps more criticism than the unfortunate Shinzo Abe who is simply trying his best in a tight spot. After all the IOC has to answer to the international community don’t they ?

Finally I want to state my objection to the fact that Mr Abe can stand in front of an international audience and make promises about things beyond his control and yet cannot make that promise to HIS OWN PEOPLE. Not to me, the international community living in Japan, or those overseas peoples with an interest in what is happening at the plant, but to his own constituents. Doesn’t he have a responsibility to the children of Japan ? To those who voted him into office ? To everyone affected by the events of the horrific earthquake and tsunami ? Where was his promise to them ? Why wait to make a statement about the plant at all ?

Clearly the prime minister is doing what he feels he must do, and perhaps the national thrill at winning the Olympic bid did cause hope and dreams to return to the Japanese people. But at what cost ? The record is not a good one so far and I remain unconvinced that anything involving the Daichi plant is anything remotely close to being controlled. It looks like TEPCO and Mr Inose agree with me.

Perfect Storm for silver

14 Sep

Usually this blog is a platform for my vexation at the Japanese government and the flaws within the system. However I thought I would turn to a subject that is near and dear to my heart which is that of precious metals and specifically silver

There are most certainly a lot of moving numbers in the calculations and quite a few relatively tweaked assumptions to work off including but certainly not limited to the GSR in the neighborhood of 16. I am unconvinced that we see anything close to that kind of ratio going forward or at least within our lifetimes but I will be happy to be wrong about that. Also one must remember that in addition to the somewhat murky total overall AG recycle numbers there is also the highly significant aspect of alternative methods of production or various alloys that can increase or decrease the industrial demand on silver. Its a bear of a calculation but I believe it worth at least a few minutes of careful consideration per day.

I too have preferred silver to gold mostly because I adore the color of it. Gold has a wonderful allure but silver is just so much more appealing to this stacker. Further I have heard the argument made that “since banks are collecting gold it is therefore the preferred method of maintaining buying power”. I think there are a number of positions one can take to this conclusion but lets stick to the topic at hand shall we ?

I try to keep everything within the perspective of history since it is a subject I enjoy doing in my spare time. It is also convenient for the GSR and precious metals discussions on boards such as this and so I present to you the historic Perfect Storm for silver. I would be prepared to argue that if such an instance occurred in the past there is a distinct possibility of it happening again in the future.

Silver production spiked after the “discovery” and mining of Potosi by the Spanish. There was also an interestingly comparative need for it in China at about the same time due a set of issues that were mostly political in nature. The Chinese were suffering from a series of paper fiat issuances which forced those who used the currency into a “spend it or lose it” situation every time the government changed hands. Chinese copper coins were being used as a measure of value but it was worth more as a medium of exchange than its base metal weight or value so there wasn’t much incentive in continuing the practice. Further the influx of silver into the European continent in such large amounts was causing a drop in its relative value. It was essentially a perfect convergence for silver further magnified by a lack of demand in the Chinese domestic market for European exports while there was a high demand for Chinese exports in European domestic markets which the Spanish had ample access to.

So at the risk of repeating myself, the Chinese wanted silver as a store of value in addition to needing an underlying metal with a relatively fixed rate of exchange to help alleviate their currency concerns. The Spanish in turn had an abundance of Potosi mined AG with a diminishing value going forward and a correspondingly high European markets demand for silk, porcelain and other Chinese goods. A market was established in Manila and the rest is history.

Amateur Hour at TEPCO

2 Sep

Amateur Hour at TEPCO

Well here we are 2 years and 6 months later. The government as well as parts of TEPCO management have changed but the excuses haven’t. Their press conferences are frighteningly puerile with the media hardly reporting on it at all. There is a reason why the Fukushima problem is not being reported to a large degree in the domestic market but it does not change the facts of the ongoing situation here in Japan.

I am not surprised, are you ?

It has been widely reported on the net and from foreign news sources that TEPCO built almost 1,000 tanks to store tons of contaminated water. Yet they did not test the valves or sealant in the tanks. Further these same tanks do not have water pressure gauges either. Then for an added bonus the company said that a total of two workers are responsible for checking the tanks. Huh ?

I have a question.

Is TEPCO serious ? They must be joking right ?

The plan was to build tanks, fill them with radioactive water without testing the sealant, not to install pressure gauges, then to reduce monitoring to a minimum ? Sounds like a winning plan to me.

Who is asking about these issues in the press ? Wait don’t answer that because I am sure the excuses will be worse than the “plan” TEPCO instituted. I get that nobody wants the job; its dirty, its dangerous, its unpopular and perhaps most compellingly its taboo.

Yup thats right folks. Talking about Fukushima is taboo.

If you think about this cultural safety valve it does help put many of the other issues into better focus. War crimes ? Taboo. Historical trouble in the region and the causes of them ? Taboo too. It really does bring up an image of an ostrich with its head in the sand. Problem ? What problem ? I don’t know about any problems.
I recently tried to discuss this issue with a long time expat friend of mine that I have known for over 10 years. He seemed incapable of understanding my point that how others perceive Japan is just as important as what Japan does going forward. It became so frustrating that I gave up trying to make the point. Perhaps I shouldn’t have but if one factors in the taboo, it makes perfect sense.

After realizing this point and spending the mental downtime to better understand it I think I can better appreciate the Japanese. They want to do well, and they try their best to do things right and if they get it wrong nobody talks about it. Its a very effective method for moving forward.

Sadly by brushing everything sordid, distasteful or dirty under the carpet there are bound to be bugs and disturbances that come about as a result. So remember that round these parts its best not to talk about past mistakes.

Is that how you live your life ? Wow talk about ghosts in the closet !

As a teacher I sometimes tell students that the best way to learn is to make mistakes, yet many diligent students here do not want to take the risk of making a mistake. The system here teaches that by venturing no answer or opinion and waiting, the teacher or senior will eventually provide the answers.

I don’t think the Western methodologies of peer based guessing are any better, just different. If I had to explain it I would use the coin analogy. Both sides are effective and one does not serve a more important function than another. I suppose I should post something about teaching on the blog but the political and environmental situation just get stuck in my craw and I want to purge the gestalt.

Meanwhile Shinzo Abe left on a nuclear technology export road show to the Middle east and Africa this week visiting Bahrain, Dijbouti, Kuwait and Qatar. Japan has already signed a nuclear cooperation agreement with UAE.

Business as usual I suppose. That other stuff belongs under the carpet.

Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead

19 Aug

This famous saying has been attributed to David Farragut during the Civil war battle of Mobile. It means to move forward despite the danger of doing so. I feel its a rather apt way of describing the recent clown car antics from the current government of Japan. Despite the danger they are going straight ahead into almost certain hazardous conditions. However, Unlike Mr Farragut who faced rebel mines in the bay of Mobile, these dangerous conditions are created by these same Japanese politicians who now bravely venture forth to challenge their self made demons.

What are these self made demons ?

Look no farther than LDP cabinet level ministers visiting Yasukuni shrine, such as Yoshitaka Shindo who is head of internal affairs and communications. Does anyone else find it ironic that the chief minister in charge of communications is the one pissing off regional powers ?

In my last post I concluded by pointing out the concept of foreign perception, which clearly eludes the current LDP government in Japan. The response did not take long, South Korean President Park said “it is hard to build trust without the willingness to face history.” She also said “I expect responsible and sincere steps to be taken to heal the wounds of those who are still suffering.”

The ambassador of Japan was summoned in Beijing to answer for the insult. Foreign ministry spokesman Hong Lei said Beijing was “strongly opposed to the visit,” and that the people of China as well as his government had been “seriously hurt,” by the visit. “If Japan cannot seriously examine its history, relations between Japan and its neighboring countries will have no future.”

Meanwhile the Japanese continue to preach to the choir. All sorts of reasons, intentions and explanations have followed all trying to justify the ministry visits. The message resonates domestically within the archipelago while none of the international reactions are broadcast to the Japanese people.

There is a profound and almost complete disconnection between the cultures in the region and it appears to be growing more distant. Full speed ahead and damn the icebergs, this is the Titanic after all.

Good work LDP

Blunderific

16 Aug

Its been far too long since I posted on this humble little blog with the big attitude, but the gaffes, mistakes and blunders around these parts continue to pile up so I thought it best to address some of them here and now.

Its amateur hour at the office of the deputy prime minister and former PM Taro Aso who went on record stating that the Liberal Democratic Party in Japan could learn something from the Nazi’s. To be fair the subject he meant to address was how a German government party was able to transform the country. However are we to believe that nobody checks his statements or was he speaking off the cuff ? So we are dealing with either incompetence, idiocy or perhaps both ? It took less than one news cycle for the criticism to escalate to the point where a retraction and apology was forthcoming. Hardly surprising and in fact rather par for the course round these parts.

The naming of the new Japanese naval helicopter carrier Izumo is also bound to become a classic dipshyte maneuver. Izumo also happens to be the name of a cruiser used by the Japanese during both the first and second Sino Japanese wars where it no doubt killed plenty of Japans enemies in such places as Shanghai and other coastal cities. Gee what a great name selection, lets choose a title that is perhaps most likely to piss off our neighbors. Then the Japanese can blame them for not understanding their culture. Talk about having ones head your ass.

For the record I know the relevance of Izumo for Japanese people, but giving the largest warship built since WW2 such a name simply tempts derision, taunts neighbors, mocks those professing detente as well as harms what little regional goodwill that remains. The reaction has been swift and justifiable to the condescending nature of the ships name. Hopefully the deterrence it provides will more than make up for the damage its caused to relations between Japan and China.

Now of course it is Obon season here in Japan which means its Yasukuni shrine time. I won’t go into details about the place because you can learn about it yourself, but it is a magnet for creating ill will all across East Asia. Thus it is a no win situation as far as international relations and greater regional stability are concerned. Therefore its a great reason for Japanese government officials to visit there. Hey lets torpedo any and all good will gained in the region by having the Government officials visit the shrine.
Or perhaps the LDP can further strain foreign affairs by having the PM call a news conference where he can discuss the importance and significance of Yasukuni to the Japanese people. Never mind how non Japanese will take such a stance. We already know what the disastrous reaction will be after numerous such discussions over the years. After all outsiders cannot possibly understand such a delicate matter so why bother worrying about it ? Lets just shoot from the hip because its done so much good for them in the past. Its laughable how easy it is for these clowns to damage an already tension filled situation with “good intent”. Actually it might be more prudent to have Mr Aso get up there and go back to the Nazi card. That way it might not piss off the Asians as much as the Jews and Europeans.

What is my point some of you may ask ?

Simply this

Those who argue that Japanese are misunderstood miss the point entirely. The issue has very little to do with how Japanese perceive themselves, this is about how her neighbors see them.

Until the little light goes on in an otherwise empty refrigerator nothing good will come from LDP posturing. Less talking, better yet NO talking is preferable to what is being said and very likely what is going to be said over the coming weeks.

Shut up links

15 Jun

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