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Noise

25 Nov

This week has had an interesting news cycle. From the recent nuclear announcement with Iran, Obama’s affordable care act issues, the long delayed attempt to remove 1500 radioactive rods from the Fukuhshima plant to the Chinese proclamation about air rights over the disputed Senkaku/Daiyou islands.

What I find most interesting about international events is how low the barrier to entry is when it comes to having an opinion about what is going on around the world. Anyone with a pulse make sweeping generalized statements while having little direct knowledge about the region in question. For the record I am not saying I am the expert but what many posit as fact should be more accurately defined as opinion. I would further hazard to say that many of these opinions are not only flawed but dangerously broken.

My father often told me to question another persons information source. Not in an aggressive manner but rather to determine where the so called facts were coming from. Once you get a grasp on someone’s knowledge base you can better interpret their conclusions. James Rickards is clearly a brilliant writer with extensive knowledge of gold and finances but his position towards the middle east is cloudy at best. Its not a snap decision on my part just simply connecting the dots from watching and reading what he says. So if he talks about finance or gold I am all ears, but when he discusses regional politics in the middle east especially Israel I choose to ignore much of what he says.

This goes to the heart of what I wanted to discuss. If you need an accountant or lawyer or even a doctor, you seek someone who is competent to take care of your needs. They provide a service and we hopefully benefit from their experience. Yet politics has no such barrier to entry. Everyone has an opinion about politics based on facts that are flawed in the best of times. Yet governmental policy is such a vitriolic issue that it often causes bitter feelings between the participants. Pointing out weak points seems to exacerbate the issue rather than clarify it. This is because people are wed to their beliefs and it often has little to do with the overriding mutually agreed upon facts of common ground.

Its a sad state of affairs.

So rather than try to poke holes in other people’s beliefs perhaps its best to ask questions about why they have come to those conclusions. In this way we can better understand each other.

Lets start with Iran shall we ?

So firstly we should agree that US foreign policy when it comes to Iran is sordid at best. The US government supported a counter-revolution and installed the Shah who had a pro US position. It was an extension of Kennan’s containment policy and in hindsight was quite effective in limiting soviet influence in the region. If someone doesn’t know these facts than their opinion on Iran has no value because they don’t understand the situation. Now that we agree that Iran is of vital interest to the US and that US foreign policy is geared towards keeping Iran within US influence it was only a question of time before events moved them towards detente.

You may not like this or support its undertaking but it has very little to do with the facts of the situation. The region is now in flux, but it has always been this way and it will continue to remain in this condition going forward. It is not a political zero sum game. The choice is NOT one of Israel or Iran, nor is it Saudi Arabia or Iran. It can be both. Yet many are making statements as if both is not a viable alternative. This is pure folly and is foolish to do so unless you conclude that the solution to the situation is to attack Iran because there is no other choice.

Since I don’t believe that anything positive can come about from attacking Iran the alternative which include negotiations are preferable. Maybe history will prove me wrong but if I have to choose between an Israeli airstrike or detente I choose the later. Finally since Israel has not signed the non proliferation treaty they are not in a position to dictate to anyone about the details of the treaty. Perhaps they should re-evaluate their position and sign the treaty ?

Healthcare is either a right or a privilege. How you answer that question will quite likely determine ones position on the issue. What I find amusing is the argument that somehow people of limited means shouldn’t have healthcare. Either you have it or you don’t. Its something everyone wants as well. The young and healthy perhaps don’t want it but they certainly need it if and when someone happens to them.

Currently the US system is broken. Americans pay more than other countries for health yet don’t have coverage for everyone. We can choose either to fix it or not.

Where was the outrage about healthcare from the right before Obama tried to pass the Affordable care act ? Where was the debate from the Tea Party when Bush passed the Medicare expansion program ? These are not fixing the problem they are only treating the symptoms. Why do liberals accept a less than adequate system of coverage ?

It certainly is a vexing issue, yet those who want the ACA to fail or want to go back to the good old days simply do not understand the problem. Follow the logic; Poor and working class people get sick, they don’t have healthcare so they delay seeing a doctor, eventually the problem gets worse so they go to the emergency room to get treatment, the bill is either picked up by the state or taxpayers anyway or is eaten by the hospital which in turn increases costs. You and I are paying for it anyway. Got it ?

You and I cannot escape from paying for other peoples care. Its really as simple as that. If you prefer a system where you don’t pay for other people I suggest you spend some time in urban India where poverty is so pervasive that people die on the streets because that is what we are going to get in the US with a no government coverage policy. Its the same flawed subjective thinking that concludes that all government is bad, yet we enjoy police, fire, road, passport and a variety of social services courtesy of our collective tax dollars.

Can government be smaller ? You bet it can, but lets cut fat not bone or muscle.

Its a broken system. There are no good old days, and hampering people’s access to healthcare makes the problem more expensive. MORE expensive not less. Yet we hear very little about solutions from either side. A pathetic situation self inflicted situation with both parties to blame which is bound to get worse.

Fukushima is a situation I have written about before that I prefer to not cover right now but there are problems with the cleanup that I will address at another time.

Last but certainly not least is the East China Sea. Warning this is more of a rant but clearly the current structure is not capable of handling the demands being put upon it. Chinese, Korean and Japanese politicians are addressing their collective domestic audiences without much regard to the region nor the consequences from conducting poor policies.

Some would suggest that this issue is about energy, yet if it were really about energy why aren’t the Japanese or any other power trying to tap into the area ? Perhaps there isn’t as much “energy” as is being claimed because if there were it would be tapped and flowing into the market by now. If it is Japanese as Mr Abe claims then go ahead and unilaterally begin mining it. Yet I see no action or discussion about doing so.

In my opinion the issue is not about energy it is about influence in the region. Energy is a strawman that everyone buys into because it appears to explain the problem. This is coming from someone who has been closely watching the region situation for a decade. You may disagree with my position but how much time have you spent on studying it and what is your information source. Pulling it out of your butt is not a viable argument either.

China has taken the next step in the escalation of words by proclaiming that the air space above the disputed area are now subject to Beijing’s rules. They have imposed a domestically legal aircraft registration system that will classify all aircraft as either legitimate or “registered” or illegal or “not registered”. The Japanese have objected yet they already have such a system in existence and use it to label Chinese entry as incursions.

Which side is right ? I can’ t say but looking at the region I would conclude that Japan might be better served by trying to work with the Chinese rather than against them on this issue. Its the same broken zero sum game mindset that belongs to a forgotten age or flawed mindset that views uninhabited islands as owned by far of regional powers. Where is the harm is collectively developing the area, registering both air recognition systems and working towards common goals ?

Its absent, but if I were going to put chips on the table I would most likely go with China. They are a rising power, soon to be the biggest market in the world and it would suit Japan’s future generations to seek common ground with such an empire rather than to squabble over crumbs. Yes that’s right, I just qualified the islands as crumbs. Compared to the domestic auto industry in China the energy from the area is a relatively small market. Yet the Japanese opt out of being a major part of that market by adhering to a broken foreign policy that gains very little at the expense of longer term benefits.

Sending in marines or threatening to do so does not improve the situation it simple pushes both sides towards escalation. If that is the goal then both parties are doing a fabulous job of it.

Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead

19 Aug

This famous saying has been attributed to David Farragut during the Civil war battle of Mobile. It means to move forward despite the danger of doing so. I feel its a rather apt way of describing the recent clown car antics from the current government of Japan. Despite the danger they are going straight ahead into almost certain hazardous conditions. However, Unlike Mr Farragut who faced rebel mines in the bay of Mobile, these dangerous conditions are created by these same Japanese politicians who now bravely venture forth to challenge their self made demons.

What are these self made demons ?

Look no farther than LDP cabinet level ministers visiting Yasukuni shrine, such as Yoshitaka Shindo who is head of internal affairs and communications. Does anyone else find it ironic that the chief minister in charge of communications is the one pissing off regional powers ?

In my last post I concluded by pointing out the concept of foreign perception, which clearly eludes the current LDP government in Japan. The response did not take long, South Korean President Park said “it is hard to build trust without the willingness to face history.” She also said “I expect responsible and sincere steps to be taken to heal the wounds of those who are still suffering.”

The ambassador of Japan was summoned in Beijing to answer for the insult. Foreign ministry spokesman Hong Lei said Beijing was “strongly opposed to the visit,” and that the people of China as well as his government had been “seriously hurt,” by the visit. “If Japan cannot seriously examine its history, relations between Japan and its neighboring countries will have no future.”

Meanwhile the Japanese continue to preach to the choir. All sorts of reasons, intentions and explanations have followed all trying to justify the ministry visits. The message resonates domestically within the archipelago while none of the international reactions are broadcast to the Japanese people.

There is a profound and almost complete disconnection between the cultures in the region and it appears to be growing more distant. Full speed ahead and damn the icebergs, this is the Titanic after all.

Good work LDP

Blunderific

16 Aug

Its been far too long since I posted on this humble little blog with the big attitude, but the gaffes, mistakes and blunders around these parts continue to pile up so I thought it best to address some of them here and now.

Its amateur hour at the office of the deputy prime minister and former PM Taro Aso who went on record stating that the Liberal Democratic Party in Japan could learn something from the Nazi’s. To be fair the subject he meant to address was how a German government party was able to transform the country. However are we to believe that nobody checks his statements or was he speaking off the cuff ? So we are dealing with either incompetence, idiocy or perhaps both ? It took less than one news cycle for the criticism to escalate to the point where a retraction and apology was forthcoming. Hardly surprising and in fact rather par for the course round these parts.

The naming of the new Japanese naval helicopter carrier Izumo is also bound to become a classic dipshyte maneuver. Izumo also happens to be the name of a cruiser used by the Japanese during both the first and second Sino Japanese wars where it no doubt killed plenty of Japans enemies in such places as Shanghai and other coastal cities. Gee what a great name selection, lets choose a title that is perhaps most likely to piss off our neighbors. Then the Japanese can blame them for not understanding their culture. Talk about having ones head your ass.

For the record I know the relevance of Izumo for Japanese people, but giving the largest warship built since WW2 such a name simply tempts derision, taunts neighbors, mocks those professing detente as well as harms what little regional goodwill that remains. The reaction has been swift and justifiable to the condescending nature of the ships name. Hopefully the deterrence it provides will more than make up for the damage its caused to relations between Japan and China.

Now of course it is Obon season here in Japan which means its Yasukuni shrine time. I won’t go into details about the place because you can learn about it yourself, but it is a magnet for creating ill will all across East Asia. Thus it is a no win situation as far as international relations and greater regional stability are concerned. Therefore its a great reason for Japanese government officials to visit there. Hey lets torpedo any and all good will gained in the region by having the Government officials visit the shrine.
Or perhaps the LDP can further strain foreign affairs by having the PM call a news conference where he can discuss the importance and significance of Yasukuni to the Japanese people. Never mind how non Japanese will take such a stance. We already know what the disastrous reaction will be after numerous such discussions over the years. After all outsiders cannot possibly understand such a delicate matter so why bother worrying about it ? Lets just shoot from the hip because its done so much good for them in the past. Its laughable how easy it is for these clowns to damage an already tension filled situation with “good intent”. Actually it might be more prudent to have Mr Aso get up there and go back to the Nazi card. That way it might not piss off the Asians as much as the Jews and Europeans.

What is my point some of you may ask ?

Simply this

Those who argue that Japanese are misunderstood miss the point entirely. The issue has very little to do with how Japanese perceive themselves, this is about how her neighbors see them.

Until the little light goes on in an otherwise empty refrigerator nothing good will come from LDP posturing. Less talking, better yet NO talking is preferable to what is being said and very likely what is going to be said over the coming weeks.

July 12

9 Jun

Mark your calendar boys, girls and bots because that is the day when the upper house of the Japanese parliament will have an election. Besides the obvious conclusion that an election has the possibility to change policy, this particular election holds more weight than normal because it is in the upper house that Abe’s policies have faced opposition.

So the question is will the Suzuki, Sato and Watanabe’s go out and continue to support the LDP and their Abenomic policies ? If they do in fact go out and vote up the LDP party line thus paving the way for less resistance to Abe’s choices then look for things to really grind into gear round these parts.

120 yen to the dollar is not outside the realm of possibility.

Nor will a corresponding response from the Koreans be of any surprise. These two nations are essentially fighting over a similar market share and I highly doubt Seoul is going to sit by while Japan continues to devalue its way to an export boom.

My advice is that if you are going to be in the market for anything out of East Asia such as a car, power tools, bearings, robotics etc you wait to see how things shake out. For in waiting you are bound to see a drop in prices, especially if you are holding dollars.

On a side note we here at casa DCY have scheduled a meeting with our local bank to renegotiate our fixed rate mortgage. It should be an interesting event as those who are paying attention can see a distinct rise in rates coming down the line and are rushing to lock in low low rates now.

When and if we are successful I will do my best to update you on the process. Wish us luck cause we are going to need it.

The ink isn’t even dry

13 May

An LDP policy chief has opened declared that visiting Yasukuni is the right of every Japanese person and that a treaty signed by China and Japan that normalized relations specifically states a position of “non interference” between the 2 countries when it comes to internal affairs. This kind of statement is almost comical if it weren’t so tragic. I think the LDP’s foreign policy is now officially lets kick the hornets nest and then play in traffic.

Sad and pathetic is how I would categorize this rash and foolish statement.

If you want to visit the shrine then do so, but to openly court your regional neighbors in doing so is just folly pure and simple. I find it difficult to think of a decision or statement by a politician that could do more damage to regional stability than this one. I take that back, if the sitting PM were to make such a statement it would be far more damaging, the fact that its only a party policy boss makes it so much more palatable.

Hang on folks, this one is bound to get more interesting.

Yen weakens

12 May

For anyone that was paying attention they could clearly see where the Abe government was headed with their new and improved fiscal policy. Then yen has now moved to about 100 to the dollar and will perhaps further weaken. My hunch is that we can easily a 106-108 range by this summer thus further boosting the bottom line.

Business sites across Japan are announcing the return to profit for many of Japans larger corporations. Boosted by the weakened yen, Japan’s value added exports are seeing a nice bump. Will it have any staying power is the question. With elections approaching we will see how well the LDP can continue to grease the wheels of the voters. I have already discussed the antiquated parliamentary district issue as being a key point in how the LDP returned to power. I fully expect this round to be a full menu of “more of the same” with Mr Abe heading into the summer/fall season with higher export numbers boosting his support.

Perhaps the Japanese government will then turn its attention to its rather pathetic attempts of foreign policy. This could become a comedy of errors as pro Japanese officials continue to comment on regional issues without regard to how their comments will be interpreted by their neighbors. There seems to be a never ending parade of stupid comments sent around the world by those who speak about Japan’s strengths in terms of the other party’s weakness. For example, Tokyo’s governor Inose was critical of Istanbul’s bid for the Olympics in an interview with the NY Times and later had to issue a formal apology. This is typical of the foreign policy playbook here.

Its rather interesting because in day to day interactions between the Japanese people the words, manners and tone between them are very carefully chosen. In fact they often bend over backwards to be polite, yet when it comes to handling important international affairs the shoe somehow seems to find its way into the mouth of some well meaning politician. Hope remains but to the experienced its simply a question of time before another comment creates another fiasco.

So we head into the summer of 2013 with elections on the horizon, the nukes due to be turned back on, then yen continuing to weaken and the island controversy still brewing. It is going to get more interesting round here.

The comedy continues

23 Apr

I guess for Americans dealing with the Boston bombing news other issues have fallen off the priority list, but I can assure you that Korea remains a big problem here in East Asia. So where is the comedy in this situation you ask ? Well I can honestly tell you that at this point I am never surprised by the propensity of the Japanese to shoot themselves in the foot.

Today it was announced that the Korean Foreign Minister was cancelling his high level talks with the Abe government as a protest over Japanese cabinet ministers visiting the Yasukuni war shrine earlier in the month. You would think that it would be in both countries best interest to at least discuss trade, finance and other issues after the major announcement by the Bank of Japan to further its quantitative easing policy. For those who didn’t already know the Koreans and Japanese are fighting over a very similar export market share and I doubt the Koreans sit by and let the Yen continue to devalue without taking similar action with the Won.

So deputy prime minister and former prime minister Taro Aso publicly decides to visit Yasukuni and nobody takes the the time to inform him that he might want to wait until AFTER the high level Korean talks ? Seriously ? Who is in charge of Japanese policy Mickey Mouse ? No wait don’t answer that question because Mickey might do a better job of it than the current administration. Its a laughable situation and very illustrative of how puerile and ignorant the Japanese are when it comes to how they handle foreign policy. Perhaps they already knew that the talks with Korea wouldn’t garner any traction but why schedule them in the first place ?

Further darkening the waters its now being reported that up to 80 Japanese nationalists are en route to visit the disputed Daioyu-Senkaku islands. While I am sure they do not have official government sanction to visit the area you can be sure that privately these kinds of excursions are met with a supporting nod and words of affirmation in upper echelon circles within the government of Japan.

I wonder what other neighbor the Abe government can piss off before the month is out ?